Greece is showing early signs of a demographic and border shift. In the first quarter of 2026, births increased and the ...

Greece is showing early signs of a demographic and border shift. In the first quarter of 2026, births increased and the share of babies born to Greek mothers rose, while illegal sea arrivals dropped 27%, falling from 16,985 to 12,496 compared to the same period last year. Migrant returns climbed 20% and forced deportations jumped 41%. The most dramatic change involved Egyptian nationals, whose sea arrivals collapsed 72%, from roughly 2,800 down to just 800. Returns of Egyptian citizens nearly quadrupled, going from 59 to 227. Greece's "prison or return" policy, introduced earlier this year, is also reshaping the numbers on the ground. Since February, 599 migrants have chosen to voluntarily return to their home countries rather than serve prison sentences for immigration-related offenses. The policy appears to be creating a deterrent effect that forced removals alone could not produce. The combination of rising births among Greek mothers and falling illegal arrivals marks a notable shift in two of the country's most politically sensitive indicators. Greece has spent years struggling with both a demographic decline and one of the highest per-capita irregular migration pressures in the EU. These Q1 figures suggest both trends may be moving in a new direction, at least for now. Officials have not yet released a full breakdown of birth statistics by month, and it remains to be seen whether the trend holds through the rest of the year. #Greece #Immigration #Demographics