Turkey has the second-largest military in NATO on paper, but a new analysis from the Middle East Forum argues that Erdog...

Turkey has the second-largest military in NATO on paper, but a new analysis from the Middle East Forum argues that Erdogan is deliberately avoiding any real test of that military because he knows it would fail one. The argument centers on the Houthi crisis. With the Houthis now controlling Mokha and the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint, access to the Red Sea is at stake. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has been scrambling to assemble a response, including finalizing the so-called Mecca Pact last month, a mutual defense agreement between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey. But analysts are skeptical Turkey will actually honor it. Erdogan has the tools, at least on paper. Turkey's largest overseas military deployment is in Somalia, where it runs a major naval base, controls Mogadishu's international airport, and has trained thousands of special forces over the past decade. Turkey also has a formidable drone fleet and has built military bases across Qatar, Syria, and occupied Cyprus. His "Blue Homeland" doctrine has driven a broad naval expansion across the Aegean, Mediterranean, and Black Sea. So why won't Erdogan send any of it to help hold the Bab el-Mandeb open? According to the Middle East Forum, because deployment would expose the bluff. Political purges gutted the Turkish military from within. One in five trained F-16 pilots has reportedly been imprisoned, and most senior commanders have been replaced. The Turkish army, the analysis concludes, is an empty shell capable of bombing unarmed Kurdish farmers but not of winning a real war. NATO leaders have long tolerated Turkey's occupation of Cyprus and its provocations against Greece in the Aegean, partly because Turkey's paper strength makes it politically costly to confront. The Middle East Forum piece argues that this calculation is built on an illusion. Turkey's power, it says, rests entirely on never being tested. The moment it is, the illusion collapses. #Turkey #NATO #Erdogan